, With economic growth stalling — or in some cases plummeting — in many of the world’s developing countries, foreign direct investment appears to be following suit

, With economic growth stalling — or in some cases plummeting — in many of the world’s developing countries, foreign direct investment appears to be following suit. In times of economic uncertainty, companies tend to seek out safe havens and will forfeit the growth opportunities that emerging markets present if these markets start to look unstable or sluggish. There are early signs that this trend could be at work

According to figures from fDi Markets, an FT data service, 97 of 154 countries typically classed as emerging markets have experienced declines in capital expenditure on greenfield investment projects in the first six months of this year compared with the same time period last year. (Eleven of the 154 countries did not have verifiable greenfield projects recorded last year so were excluded from the comparison.)

In 25 of the 97 countries showing negative growth, capital expenditure collapsed to zero. Another 42 saw dramatic declines of 50 per cent or more; a further 22 saw drops of between 20 and 50 per cent between January-June 2014 and January-June 2015

FDi has identified 61 developing countries that attracted more than $500m in greenfield investment in the first half of last year. Of those, 47 saw relative declines in the first half of this year. The fallers include some of the world’s major FDI markets, such as China (down 26 per cent), Brazil (-65 per cent) and Russia (-46 per cent), as well as a roll call of important economies in every region, from Hong Kong (-35 per cent), Malaysia (-49 per cent), Philippines (-48 per cent) and South Korea (-64 per cent) in Asia; to Poland (-21 per cent) and Romania (-17 per cent) in eastern Europe; Ghana (-56 per cent), Kenya (-44 per cent) and Nigeria (-23 per cent) in Africa; and Argentina (-6 per cent), Chile (-33 per cent), Colombia (-56 per cent) and Peru (-84 per cent) in Latin America. Mexico, while witnessing a decline, has fared better than most of its regional competitors with only a 3 per cent drop

Violence and security fears are hitting the inflows of countries such as Iraq (-76 per cent) and Yemen (-100 per cent) and causing a ripple effect around the region, impacting neighbouring Jordan (-83 per cent) Lebanon (-97 per cent) and Turkey (-25 per cent). Meanwhile, oil producers Angola (-99 per cent) and Saudi Arabia (-52 per cent) have posted declines after large investments by French energy group Total had boosted the 2014 FDI figures for both countries

Although the negative percentages outweigh the positives, there are some growth stories still to be found. India, one of the star performers of 2014, has managed to more than double its midyear investment levels, attracting $30bn by the end of June compared with $12bn in the first half of last year. Indonesia has seen a 62 per cent increase in investment to nearly $14bn, and South Africa, 77 per cent to $3bn. Vietnam, another FDI star of 2014, is on track to match if not exceed its blockbuster year, attracting $7.5bn just as it had by the midway point of last year. The United Arab Emirates is also on par with its previous performance, attracting $3.5bn

It may be too soon to speak yet of a genuine emerging markets FDI crash. Investment announcements sometimes pick up steam in the second half of the year. One or two large projects can inflate or skew capital investment data, some of which are based on estimates. And because greenfield investment decisions are deliberate, slow and long term, reading too much into the tea leaves about short-term trends can be risky. However, the sheer number of developing countries showing a clear downturn in year-on-year investment through the first two quarters of the year suggests that the broad trend will be extremely difficult if not impossible to reverse in the final two quarters